Post date: 16/05/2022 12:36 Wobbly stock markets trigger rush to safe-havens Another week of risk asset sell-offs had a predictable effect on currency markets. The Japanese yen topped the week’s performance charts, followed by the US dollar. European currency stalled again, and commodity currencies like the Norwegian krone and the antipodean dollars fell sharply. Emerging…
Post date: 09/05/2022 14:34 Interest rates are going up everywhere, hard and fast, and markets are finding it increasingly difficult to ignore the consequences. Stocks staged a relief rally in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point hike, but it was short-lived, and by the following day they resumed their downward trend, closing…
Post date: 25/04/2022 12:28 The key 10-year Treasury rate rose another 6 basis points to end the week above 2.90%. The sell-off in US fixed income is now spreading to other markets, with European yields moving higher as the long-awaited (by us, at least) hawkish turn in ECB communications begins to take place. On the…
Post date: 19/04/2022 12:52 The key developments in financial markets continue to take place in the US Treasury market. The Fed is squarely focused on bringing inflation back under control and is telegraphing one of the fastest tightening processes in history. US fixed income is selling off across the board, and the key 10-year Treasury…
Post date: 11/04/2022 12:52 Fading peace prospects weigh on euro, while surging US rates buoy dollar The euro finished the week at the bottom of the G10 rankings on concerns that the war in Ukraine will not stop any time soon, as well as jitters about the French presidential election. The carnage in the US…
Post date: 04/04/2022 13:44 The euro, together with the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc led the G10 rankings last week. The sense that the Russian invasion may be entering a less catastrophic stage certainly helped, as did the pullback in oil prices after Biden announced massive sales of oil from the US strategic reserve…
Post date: 31/03/2022 19:00 The worldwide inflationary episode continues to upend expectations and historical correlations. The bloodbath in world bond markets took a turn for the worse last week, sending the 10-year Treasury yield close to the psychological level of 2.50% that was crossed at the start of this week. However, world stock markets continue…
Post date: 22/03/2022 06:18 Stock markets and risk assets generally posted impressive moves last week, discounting the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and treating Fed hawkishness as a case of “buy the rumour, sell the news”. As an example of the optimism pervading financial markets, European stock indices closed the week at essentially…
Post date: 14/03/2022 12:32 The ECBs unambiguously hawkish messaging last week did not stop the euro from sinking to new lows as concerns mount over stagflation or worse. We also saw a significant rebound in Eastern European currencies led by the Polish zloty, as central banks in the region both raised interest rates aggressively and/or…
Post date: 07/03/2022 12:38 European currencies sink, dollar soars as the news from Ukraine get grimmer. The worsening humanitarian and security crisis brought about by the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to buffet financial markets. There are volatile moves and a flight to safe havens everywhere, but European assets are being punished with particular severity,…
